| Strategic Importance to the Government of Tamil Nadu:
TNPGCL holds strategic importance to the Government of Tamil Nadu (GoTN) as the state's principal thermal and gas-based power generation utility, with an installed generation capacity of 5,120 MW of thermal power and around 408 MW of operational gas-based capacity. The company plays a critical role in meeting Tamil Nadu's base-load power requirements and contributes to the state's energy security through power supply to Tamil Nadu Power Distribution Corporation Limited (TNPDCL), the state-owned distribution utility. Further, TNPGCL is undertaking significant capacity expansion projects, including the Udangudi and North Chennai thermal power projects, which are expected to augment the state's generation capacity over the medium term. The strategic importance of the company is reflected in the continued ownership, policy support, guarantees on a substantial portion of its borrowings and proposed equity support from GoTN towards its capital expenditure programme. Acuité believes TNPGCL's strategic importance to GoTN, coupled with its critical role in the state's power sector, is likely to support continued policy and financial support from the government.
Established Offtake Arrangement and Regulated Tariff Framework:
TNPGCL supplies its entire power generation from thermal and gas-based stations to Tamil Nadu Power Distribution Corporation Limited (TNPDCL), the state-owned distribution utility. The company operates under a regulated cost-plus tariff framework determined by the Tamil Nadu Electricity Regulatory Commission (TNERC), which provides visibility in the recovery of approved fixed capacity charges and variable energy charges. Under the prevailing Multi-Year Tariff (MYT) Order applicable for FY2023-FY2027, approved energy charges for thermal stations range between Rs.2.38/kWh and Rs.5.01/kWh, while energy charges for gas-based stations range between Rs.1.78/kWh and Rs.1.95/kWh. The regulated tariff framework, coupled with the established offtake arrangement with TNPDCL, supports revenue visibility and mitigates market-related demand risks. The next tariff revision is expected in September 2027 for the subsequent control period beginning FY2028. Acuité believes TNPGCL's established offtake arrangement with TNPDCL and the regulated tariff framework provide visibility in revenue recovery and mitigate exposure to market and demand-related risks.
|
| Moderation in operating performance:
TNPGCL's operating income moderated to Rs.13,802.73 Cr. in FY2026 (Prov.) from Rs.16,029.65 Cr. in FY2025, primarily due to lower power generation during the year on account of outages at Tuticorin Thermal Power Station, maintenance shutdowns at Mettur Thermal Power Station and fuel availability constraints at certain gas-based stations. Consequently, EBITDA moderated to Rs.3,395.74 Cr. in FY2026 (Prov.) from Rs.3,831.62 Cr. in FY2025. However, the operating margin improved marginally to 24.60 percent in FY2026 (Prov.) from 23.90 percent in FY2025, supported by the regulated tariff framework. The company reported a net loss of Rs.2,882.95 Cr. in FY2026 (Prov.) as against a net loss of Rs.2,228.97 Cr. in FY2025, resulting in a net loss margin of 20.89 percent in FY2026 (Prov.) and 13.91 percent in FY2025, respectively. The profitability profile continues to remain impacted by the sizeable interest burden associated with the legacy debt transferred pursuant to the restructuring of the state power sector. Acuité believes TNPGCL's operating performance continues to benefit from the regulated tariff framework, however, its overall profitability remains moderated by the sizeable finance costs.
Intensive working capital operations:
TNPGCL's working capital operations are intensive in nature, as reflected by the gross current asset (GCA) of 426 days in FY2026 (Prov.) as against 280 days in FY2025. The elongation in the working capital cycle was primarily driven by higher receivables from the sole off-taker, Tamil Nadu Power Distribution Corporation Limited (TNPDCL), resulting in debtor days of 81 days in FY2026 (Prov.) compared to 4 days in FY2025, along with increased advances and other current assets. The creditors primarily comprise legacy payables, resulting in creditor days of 719 days in FY2026 (Prov.) against 598 days in FY2025.The current ratio remained subdued at 0.34 times in FY2026 (Prov.) as against 0.19 times in FY2025. The fund-based working capital limits utilization remained at an average of around 12.4 percent during the twelve months ended July 2026, providing cushion for short-term liquidity requirements. Acuité believes the company's working capital operations are likely to remain intensive over the medium term on account of the elevated receivables position, although the associated credit risk is partly mitigated by the state-owned nature of the counterparty and TNPGCL's strategic importance to the Government of Tamil Nadu.
Weak Financial Risk Profile
TNPGCL's financial risk profile is below average, marked by a negative net worth position, high leverage and weak debt protection metrics. The company continued to report losses during FY2026 (Prov.), resulting in a further erosion of its net worth position which stood negative at -Rs.43611.33 Cr. as on March 31, 2026 (Prov.) compared to -Rs.40,732.91 Cr. as on March 31, 2025. The overall debt levels remained high at Rs.1,05,746.23 crore as on March 31, 2026 (Prov.) against Rs.91,325.94 crore as on March 31, 2025, primarily due to the legacy debt transferred to the company pursuant to the restructuring of the state power sector, coupled with borrowings availed towards ongoing capital expenditure requirements. Consequently, the capital structure remained stretched, with gearing deteriorating to (-2.42) times as on March 31, 2026 (Prov.) from (-2.24) times as on March 31, 2025. The TOL/TNW ratio stood at (-3.19) times as on March 31, 2026 (Prov.) against (-3.04) times as on March 31, 2025.The debt protection metrics remained weak, with the interest coverage ratio declining to 0.64 times in FY2026 (Prov.) from 0.77 times in FY2025 and debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) declined to 0.20 times in FY2026 (Prov.) from 0.77 times in FY2025. Further, Debt-to-EBITDA deteriorated to 28.56 times from 17.93 times over the same period. Acuité believes the financial risk profile of the company is likely to remain constrained over the medium term on account of its sizeable debt burden and ongoing debt-funded capital expenditure programme.
Exposure to Regulatory risks:
TNPGCL's operations remain subject to the regulatory framework governing the power sector in Tamil Nadu. Tariffs for the company's thermal and gas-based generating stations are determined by the Tamil Nadu Electricity Regulatory Commission (TNERC) under a regulated cost-plus tariff mechanism, which provides for recovery of approved fixed and variable costs. While the regulatory framework supports revenue visibility, any adverse changes in tariff regulations, delays in tariff approvals, disallowance of costs, or changes in the regulatory norms governing cost recovery could impact the company's cash flows and profitability. Acuité believes that any significant change in the regulatory environment or tariff determination mechanism may have a bearing on the credit profile of the company.
|