Achievement of PCOD and low funding risk
The SPV has received the PCOD certificate from KSHIP w.e.f. February 23, 2025 for 92% of the project (127.205 km out of 138.168 km). Currently the SPV has successfully completed ~95 percent of physical progress and achieved ~93 percent of financial progress. The project is also supported by the strong and healthy execution track record of the EPC contractor i.e. GCL.
Moreover, the project has low funding risk as the entire grant milestone payments amounting to Rs. 603.75 Cr. has been released by KSHIP and debt of Rs. 283 Cr. has been fully tied up. Further, of the pending NCD tranches of Rs. 193 Cr., Rs. 50 Cr. is expected to be released by June 2025 and Rs. 143 Cr. by September 2025, to be utilised towards the project execution and payments to EPC contractors. The project funding is also support by GCL who infused ~Rs. 65 Cr. in the form of the unsecured subordinate debt, of which current outstanding is of Rs. 11.25 Cr.
Low revenue risk
The project developed by SGHPL is an annuity-based revenue model wherein concession is granted to SGHPL for 9 years, which includes 7 years of planned annuity payments after the achievement of the COD which shall be funded by KSHIP. Hence, the SPV will be receiving ~55 percent of total escalated project cost in the form of 14 biannual annuities along with operation & maintenance expenses and interest on reducing balance of construction cost. As the project got extension from KSHIP for delays due to covid-19 pandemic and unavailability of timely land clearance, the annuity payments will consist of the escalations of the project cost and the O&M bid quote adjusted to price index multiple to the SPV as per the clause mentioned in the concession agreement. Therefore, as per the 7th supplementary agreement signed between the authority and the SPV, the bid project cost has escalated from Rs. 995 Cr. to Rs. 1,335.36 Cr (Grant: Rs. 603.75 Cr. and Annuity: Rs. 731.61 Cr.). Further, as per the 7th supplementary agreement the first annuity payment is due in the month of August 2025.
Waterfall mechanism in escrow account for debt servicing
SGHPL has escrow mechanism through which the cash flows from authority is routed and used for payment as per the defined payment waterfall. Only surplus cash flow after meeting statutory payments, operating expense, debt servicing obligation, and provision for major maintenance expense, can be utilised as per borrower’s discretion during the concession period.
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Timely land clearance by the authority and receipt of final completion certificate
The company as on date is yet to receive the land clearance for remaining ~3 km from the authority wherein the authorities are negotiating with the landowners. Moreover, if the authority fails to acquire the land, as per the latest 7th Supplementary agreement, there is a clause wherein de-scoping of the same will be done and eventually the project cost shall also be reduced in the proportionate ratio. However, all these actions shall be critical in achievement of the 100 percent completion which is targeted by September 30, 2025 or within 4 months of land clearance, whichever is later. Therefore, any substantial delay in the land clearance extending the project timelines affecting the receipt of final completion certificate shall be a key rating sensitivity.
Susceptibility to risks related to delay in receipt of annuity
As per the concession agreement, the company is entitled to receive a semi-annual annuity over the concession period. However, any delay in the timely receipt of these annuity payments could adversely affect its debt-servicing capacity. In addition to fixed annuities, the project is also eligible to receive interest on outstanding annuity amounts, calculated at the prevailing bank rate plus an applicable spread. The company is also exposed to risks associated with the maintenance of the project and failure to adhere to prescribed maintenance standards or delays in timely upkeep could lead to deductions in annuity payments, thereby significantly impacting the company’s cash flows.
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