Low off take risk supported by long term PPA
MBPL has entered into a long-term PPA with the discoms of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Haryana. Out of a total capacity of 1250 MW, the company has PPA tie-ups with MP discoms for 420 MW, UP discoms for 383 MW, and Haryana discoms for 155 MW. For the balance, capacity is untied and sold in exchange at market-determined prices. Out of the total capacity of 1250 Mws, around 70 percent is tied up with long-term PPAs, and around 15 percent is tied up with medium-term PPAs. PPAs with MP discoms have a fuel cost pass through mechanism that helps the company mitigate risk relating to variation in coal prices. The company has also entered into a long-term open access agreement with the Power Grid Corporation of India (PGCIL) and is well connected with dedicated transmission lines that are connected to the National Grid. Power supply to off-takers (UP, MP, and Haryana) is done through the National Grid.
Stable operating performance
The plant has consistently maintained an average NAPAF of ~90% in the previous three fiscals ending March 2024, which has ensured recovery of capacity charges under PPAs. The PLF has remained at around 79.9% and 71.70% during FY24 and FY23, respectively. Given the adequate fuel tie-up, the plant was able to achieve a higher-than-normative PAF and sustain a high PLF over the medium term. Recently, the company has increased its installed capacity to 1250 MWs, which has been duly certified by regulators, and power generation for additional capacity has commenced in April 2024.
Healthy financial risk profile
The financial risk profile of the company is healthy, marked by strong net worth, moderate gearing levels, and debt protection metrics. The company's net worth improved and stood at Rs. 2160.27 crore as of March 31st, 2023, as against Rs. 1945.03 crore as of March 31st, 2022, and Rs. 1701.20 crore as of March 31st, 2021, on account of accretion of profits. The gearing ratios of the company stood moderately at 2.20 times as of March 31st, 2023, as opposed to 2.57 times as of March 31st, 2022, and 3.20 times as of March 31st, 2021. The improvement in gearing levels is due to the pre-payment of debt backed by adequate cash accruals. Further, the total outside liabilities to tangible networth (TOL/TNW) stood at 2.66 times as of March 31st, 2023, as against 3.00 times as of March 31st, 2022, and 3.62 times as of March 31st, 2021. The net cash accrual to total debt (NCA/TD) stood at 0.13 times in FY2023 and FY2022, as well as against 0.11 times in FY2021. The debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) stood moderate at 1.23 times for FY2023 as against 1.27 times for FY2022 and 1.87 times for FY2021, and interest coverage ratios stood low at 2.10 times in FY2023 as against 1.99 times in FY2022 and 1.87 times in FY2021. Further, the company is in the process of refinancing its existing debt in order to reduce its overall cost of debt. Acuite believes that the financial risk profile of the company will continue to remain healthy over the medium term.
Efficient working capital management
The company’s operations are working capital efficient, as reflected by its gross current assets (GCA) days of 134 days in FY2023 as against 165 days in FY2022 and 195 days in FY2021. The debtor days of the company stood at 49 days in FY2023, as against 70 days in FY2022, and 78 days in FY2021. The creditor days of the company stood at 103 days in FY2023, as against 123 days in FY2022, and 104 days in FY2021. Acuite believes that the company’s operations will continue to remain efficient over the medium term.
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Moderate counterparty credit profile
Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh discoms are major off-takers of the company. The financial risk profile of these companies is moderate; however, the company has been receiving the payments in a timely manner. . Payments from MP and UP discoms are received in 45 to 50 days, and payments from Haryana discoms are received within 5 to 7 days. Exchange sales are realized within 2 to 3 days, respectively. Going ahead, any significant deterioration in the credit risk profile of the off-takers leading to an impact on the liquidity position and financial risk profile of the company shall remain a key monitorable.
Exposure to merchant markets to the extent of untied capacity
MBPL was able to sell power at a relatively higher rate in merchant markets with an average price realisation of Rs.6.10/unit during FY2024 However, company has untied capacity of almost 15 percent of its total capacity which remains exposed to volatility in price fluctuations in the merchant markets. Going ahead, the ability of the company to tap in the short term markets with healthy price realisations remains key rating monitorable.
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